张尧浠：关税、降息、央行需求、政府停摆，金价上看4200不变

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged to a new historical high, reaching the target of $4110, with expectations to continue rising towards the $4200 target due to factors such as tariffs, interest rate cuts, central bank demand, and government shutdown concerns [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 13, gold opened at $4004.70 per ounce, hitting a low of $4003.62 before rebounding to a high of $4116.69, closing at $4110.38, marking a daily increase of $97.75 or 2.44% from the previous close of $4012.63 [1][3]. - Silver has also broken the $52 mark, setting a new historical high [1]. Economic Influences - Concerns over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and indications from the Philadelphia Fed President suggesting two more interest rate cuts this year have heightened market uncertainty, contributing to a $100 surge in gold prices [3]. - The government shutdown has entered its 13th day, with Treasury Secretary Yellen stating it is beginning to impact the economy and citizens' lives [3]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain its bullish momentum, with potential resistance at $4200 and support levels at $4110 or $4060 [9]. - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and the IMF's Global Economic Outlook report are anticipated to influence gold prices, with a potential upward adjustment in interest rate cut expectations [5][9]. - The overall economic outlook suggests a continued bullish trend for gold, with a significant increase of 57% indicating economic uncertainty and a slowdown in growth [5]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have consistently rebounded from support levels, indicating sustained bullish momentum without signs of weakening [7]. - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are trading above the previous target of $4110, suggesting reduced resistance and a continued bullish outlook towards the $4200 mark [9].