猪价跌至近5年低位，节假日“救市”失效，后市何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The holiday consumption effect on pig prices is weakening, with prices continuing to decline despite the recent holidays [1][2][3] Price Trends - The average national pig price was 12.90 yuan/kg in the first week of October, down 2.8% from the previous week and 29.5% year-on-year [1][2] - Prices have dropped over 22% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching a low point for the year [1] - As of October 13, the average price for external three-yuan pigs was 10.81 yuan/kg, indicating a slight daily decrease [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs remains abundant, with a significant number of breeding sows still in operation, leading to a challenging market for price recovery [3][6] - Analysts predict that the demand for pigs may improve in November due to cooler weather and seasonal activities, but overall supply is expected to outpace demand [2][7] Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture has emphasized the need for strict production capacity controls, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million [6] - Some companies have begun to adjust their production strategies, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs being sold [6][7] Profitability Concerns - The ongoing decline in pig prices has significantly impacted the profitability of pig farming, with losses reported for self-breeding and pig fattening operations [5][6] - Smaller farming operations are facing the most pressure due to higher costs, while larger enterprises are better positioned to manage risks [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term price stabilization, the overall supply situation will limit significant price increases in the near future [5][7] - The market is expected to remain under pressure until production capacity adjustments take effect, with a potential for improved demand in the winter months [7]