Core Viewpoint - The glass market is facing a significant contradiction where demand continues to decline while production is on the rise, leading to an oversupply situation that is expected to keep prices under pressure [8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Glass inventory has returned to historically high levels, indicating a clear oversupply, making it difficult for prices to rise unless effective "anti-involution" policies are implemented [1][10]. - As of October 10, the production profit for float glass using coal as fuel increased to 143.93 CNY/ton, up 36.39 CNY/ton from early September, while profits for oil coke and natural gas processes also saw significant increases [2]. - The daily production of float glass reached 161,300 tons as of October 10, slightly up from 159,600 tons on September 2, nearing last year's levels, but the production and sales rate has been declining [4]. - The average production and sales rate for float glass across major regions was 84% as of October 10, remaining below 100% for 12 consecutive days, indicating weak demand [4]. Real Estate Sector Performance - The real estate sector, a key downstream industry for glass, has shown weak performance, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities dropping by 11.78% year-on-year in September [5]. - From January to August 2025, domestic real estate investment totaled 49,589.45 billion CNY, down 13.67% year-on-year, with new construction area and completed area also showing significant declines [5]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing reached 76.2 million square meters, the highest level since 2019, further indicating a contraction in demand for glass [5]. Processed Glass Demand - Demand for processed glass remains weak, with order days for downstream manufacturers dropping to 11 days, the lowest level for the same period in the past seven years [6]. - Although automotive production has increased by 10.5% year-on-year, accounting for only 15%-20% of flat glass demand, it is insufficient to offset the decline in demand from the real estate sector [6]. Market Outlook - The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation, with float glass factory inventory reaching 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 6.76% increase year-on-year and the second-highest level for the same period in history [8][10]. - Without a significant reduction in production capacity through policy measures, glass prices are likely to remain under pressure, making it advisable for companies to consider hedging opportunities during price rebounds [10].
旺季成色不足 玻璃易跌难涨
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-14 02:15