浙商证券：化妆品围绕估值切换、双十一催化两条主线 医美Q4新产品有望获批带来催化

Group 1: Cosmetics Industry Insights - The new consumer brands in the cosmetics sector are expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%-30% in revenue and profit over the next 2-3 years due to product upgrades and brand building [1] - Retail sales of cosmetics showed steady growth with year-on-year increases of 4.5% and 5.1% in July and August 2025, respectively [1] - The Q3 performance was relatively stable during the off-season, but some companies experienced a decline in revenue growth compared to previous quarters; the overall industry is expected to see low single-digit growth in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Marketing Strategies - The effectiveness of influencer marketing is diminishing, leading brands to focus more on the certainty and sustainability of traffic [2] - A shift in marketing strategies is observed, moving from reliance on influencers to a renewed focus on celebrity endorsements, utilizing a flexible matrix approach and short-term collaborations [2] - The new celebrity endorsement model aims to leverage the immediate sales conversion from celebrity fans while enhancing brand image and reaching new demographics [2] Group 3: Medical Aesthetics Industry Insights - The medical aesthetics sector is facing increased competition with a rapid approval of upstream consumables, while the difficulty in maintaining and acquiring new clients at downstream institutions continues to rise [3] - The Q3 performance of Langzi Co.'s medical aesthetics business showed slight improvement compared to H1, but revenue still experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year [3] Group 4: Upstream and Downstream Dynamics - The demand growth rate is slowing, with an increasing number of products like hyaluronic acid and botulinum toxin being approved, intensifying competition [4] - There is a recommendation to focus on new materials with regulatory advantages, particularly the potential of PDRN [4] - The downstream sector is exploring a "Sam's Club" model in medical aesthetics, with a focus on replicating the business model from first-tier to second and third-tier cities [4]