关税冲击、汇率联动与银行外汇业务发展

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the dynamic characteristics of exchange rate linkage under tariff shocks and their impact on bank foreign exchange operations, suggesting countermeasures in response to the complexities introduced by trade protectionism and fluctuating tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Shocks on Exchange Rate Linkage - Recent global tariff shocks are characterized by sudden and frequent changes, with tariff levels ranging from 10% to 145%, affecting a wide range of goods across multiple countries [2]. - The US dollar index has decreased by over 10.6% this year, while major European currencies like the Czech koruna and Swiss franc have appreciated by more than 11% [2]. - The linkage effect of exchange rates has significantly increased during periods of unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," leading to depreciation pressures on currencies in developed and emerging markets [2]. Group 2: Changes in Bank Foreign Exchange Operations - Tariff shocks have altered the structure and scale of customer foreign exchange trading, reducing demand for currency purchases due to increased import costs and decreased competitiveness of exports [10]. - The cross-border capital flow direction is rapidly changing due to tariff impacts, necessitating a reevaluation of foreign exchange trading strategies [10]. - The demand for foreign exchange hedging products has increased as companies seek to manage exchange rate risks amid heightened volatility [10]. Group 3: Challenges in Foreign Exchange Trading - The foreign exchange market faces challenges in depth and liquidity due to the formation of unilateral expectations driven by tariff policies, complicating market-making activities [11]. - Market makers must quickly adjust multi-currency positions to mitigate spillover risks from exchange rate linkages, which can lead to increased liquidity risks [11]. Group 4: Risk Management in Foreign Exchange Markets - The complexity of foreign exchange risk management has intensified, with various risks such as market, credit, liquidity, and operational risks becoming more pronounced [12]. - The interconnectedness of exchange rate linkages can lead to a "volatility-transmission-liquidity crunch" cycle, necessitating robust risk management frameworks [12]. Group 5: Strategies for Bank Foreign Exchange Business Development - Banks should enhance foreign exchange market research and product design to better align with customer needs, particularly in response to tariff policy changes [15]. - There is a need to diversify foreign exchange trading from a USD-centric model to include more regional currencies, thereby reducing exchange rate risks [14]. - Continuous improvement of foreign exchange market infrastructure is essential to provide real-time data and customized solutions for clients [15].