印度深陷“白银荒”：当地银价溢价10%、ETF被迫暂停新认购

Core Insights - India, as the largest silver consumer globally, is experiencing a surge in investor demand, leading to a significant premium of 10% over international silver prices, which has resulted in the suspension of new subscriptions for physically-backed silver ETFs [1][7] - The upcoming Diwali festival is driving increased demand for silver jewelry, further exacerbating the supply shortage [3] - Global silver demand has consistently outstripped supply over the past four years, depleting previous excess inventories, and this trend is expected to continue through 2025 due to limited production responses to price increases [4] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of silver is constrained as approximately 70% of silver is a byproduct of other metal mining, limiting the ability to ramp up production in response to rising prices [4] - Industrial demand, particularly from renewable energy and high-tech sectors, continues to grow, contributing to the structural shortage of silver [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, India's silver imports fell by 42% year-on-year to 3,302 tons, while investment demand surged to record levels, depleting previously accumulated inventories [5] Group 2: Challenges in Importing Silver - India typically relies on a significant premium of spot prices over futures prices to incentivize banks to increase imports, but limited supply from major producing countries and logistical bottlenecks have tightened the physical silver market [6] - The silver leasing rate in London has risen above 30%, indicating increased costs for acquiring physical silver [6] Group 3: Impact on ETFs and Market Participants - Indian silver ETFs saw record inflows of 53.42 billion rupees in September, but high premiums forced them to pause new subscriptions to avoid passing on inflated costs to investors [7] - The shortage of silver has hindered manufacturers' ability to produce silverware, and the expectation of rising prices has led to a reluctance among investors to sell their existing silver assets, further tightening supply [8]