矿业ETF（561330）连续4日净流入超3.7亿元，地缘风险与供需矛盾推升工业金属预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has led to a complete production halt, raising concerns over copper supply and potentially driving up copper prices [1] Group 1: Incident Impact - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, is expected to produce approximately 816,000 tons of copper in 2024 [1] - Freeport anticipates that it will take until 2027 to return to pre-incident production levels, with a projected 35% decrease in copper-gold output for 2026 compared to previous expectations [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the incident, concerns over copper supply have emerged, leading to a 3.27% increase in LME copper prices, reaching $10,320 per ton, the highest level since June 2024 [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have opened up macroeconomic easing, coinciding with the peak demand season for industrial metals in China, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices due to the Grasberg mine's shutdown [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals [1] - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by over 10%, indicating a concentration in leading companies and a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earth elements [1]