Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil prices experienced a rebound on October 13, with WTI crude oil closing at $59.49 per barrel, up 1.00%, and Brent crude at $63.32 per barrel, up 0.94% [1] - The recent price drop was attributed to the volatility in US-China trade relations, but the willingness to negotiate has limited further market sell-offs [1][3] - The oil market is currently undergoing a restructuring of soft power dynamics, influenced by geopolitical events and trade negotiations [3][4] Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser projected strong global oil demand growth driven by developing countries, with an expected increase of 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2025 and 2026 [2] - Saudi Aramco's production capacity stands at 12 million barrels per day, with a low extraction cost of $2 per barrel, indicating a strong position in the market [2] - The psychological support for WTI oil prices is seen at the $60 per barrel mark, influenced by stable demand from China [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages signify a shift from "risk discount" to "restorative valuation" in Middle Eastern oil supply dynamics [4] - The role of the US as a mediator in the Gaza conflict reflects its energy diplomacy and soft power, potentially impacting oil transportation routes [4] - The current oil price fluctuations are viewed as a rebalancing of the "military-energy-currency" soft power framework [3]
邓正红能源软实力：石油市场正处于软实力格局重构关键期 全球规则体系再平衡
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-14 04:02