连连数字(02598.HK):懂支付、懂贸易、前瞻布局VATP的数字支付科技公司

Core Insights - The company is the largest independent digital payment solution provider in China, holding 65 global licenses and covering key markets including mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, the US, the UK, Thailand, Luxembourg, and Indonesia, with plans to expand into emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America [1][2] - The digital payment market is rapidly growing due to globalization and the expansion of cross-border e-commerce, with China's cross-border e-commerce import and export compound growth rate reaching 13.7% from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The company's revenue primarily comes from cross-border payment services, which account for approximately 60% of total revenue, helping merchants navigate high costs and compliance risks associated with cross-border transactions [3] Company Performance - The company's cross-border payment fee rates have remained stable between 2.8‰ and 3.8‰ from 2020 to 2024, while domestic payment rates are around 0.1-0.2‰, influenced by intense competition [3] - The company has seen significant growth in its value-added services, particularly in digital marketing, which generated revenues of 3.76 million, 53.58 million, and 79.08 million yuan from 2021 to the first three quarters of 2023, respectively [3] - The sale of shares in a subsidiary contributed approximately 2 billion yuan to the company's performance in the first half of 2025, with expectations of reduced impairment losses in the future [3] Regulatory Developments - The company obtained a VATP (Virtual Asset Trading Platform) license in Hong Kong by the end of 2024, which is expected to enhance its business capabilities and service offerings [4] - The VATP license is rare, and the company is one of the few licensed institutions with trade payment scenarios, potentially allowing for improved efficiency in cross-border payment settlements [4] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 1.7 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.3%, 29.6%, and 22.7% respectively [4] - The company is expected to leverage its WEB3 ecosystem applications to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and create synergies with its core business [4]