Ge Long Hui·2025-10-14 04:13Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported a market capitalization of HKD 49.85 trillion as of September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.01% and a year-on-year increase of 35.03% [1] - The average daily trading (ADT) for Q3 reached HKD 286.36 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 144.80% and a month-on-month increase of 20.48% [1] - In Q3 2025, 28 new companies were listed, raising a total of HKD 478.38 billion, which is a 33.75% increase year-on-year [2] - The derivatives market showed positive growth, with average daily trading volume for futures and options reaching 165 million contracts, up 9.28% year-on-year [3] Market Activity - Southbound capital inflow totaled HKD 399.99 billion from July to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 230.22%, significantly boosting market activity [2] - The average daily trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Connect southbound trading reached HKD 152.46 billion in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 303.85% [2] Derivatives and Commodity Market - The average daily trading volume for derivatives and commodity contracts maintained positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.28% in Q3 [3] - The average daily trading volume for metal contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached 71,000 contracts in September, a 5.51% increase year-on-year [3] Interest Rates and Investment Outlook - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rebounded in Q3, reaching approximately 3.5% by September 30, which is indicative of a tightening liquidity environment [4] - The sustained high trading activity is expected to continue into Q4, supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift and ongoing southbound capital inflows [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve Q3 revenue of HKD 7.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.26%, and a net profit of HKD 4.82 billion, up 53.38% year-on-year [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to grow by 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for HKEX is 36.49x, which is within a favorable range compared to historical averages [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of HKD 543 per share, supported by strong market activity and valuation advantages [6]