螺纹钢与铁矿石：钢价或震荡偏弱，铁矿料震荡走势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a divergence in the futures market for steel and iron ore, with steel prices expected to remain weak while iron ore is anticipated to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - On the steel market, futures prices showed weakness with a reported transaction volume of 106,000 tons and specific price changes: Tangshan steel billet at 2,940 (-10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3,220 (-10) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3,320 (-20) yuan/ton [1] - In September, the new residential property transaction area in 10 major cities reached 6.7637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The second-hand housing transaction area was 9.3068 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [1] - The sentiment among traders in the spot market remains stable, but transactions are at low levels, indicating weak terminal demand. While second-hand home sales have improved, new home sales show limited improvement [1] - Steel mills are maintaining production levels, leading to increased supply pressure as hot-rolled coil inventories rise to high levels, suggesting a bearish outlook for steel prices [1] Group 3 - In the iron ore market, futures prices are fluctuating with a reported port transaction volume of 950,000 tons. Prices for PB powder are at 796 (+6) yuan/ton, and for super special powder at 720 (+4) yuan/ton, with a price difference of 76 yuan/ton between PB and super special powder [1] - From October 6 to 12, the total iron ore volume arriving at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, an increase of 3.683 million tons compared to the previous period. Global shipments totaled 32.075 million tons, a decrease of 0.715 million tons [1] - The demand side shows that steel mills are profitable, with high furnace operation rates and an average daily pig iron output exceeding 2.41 million tons. The supply side remains stable, with a slight decrease in overseas shipments this week, while arrivals are at near three-year highs [1] - Post-holiday, steel mill inventory is expected to decrease, while port inventories are anticipated to increase, leading to a forecast of fluctuating iron ore prices [1]