南方基金：中美贸易摩擦再度升温，各类资产怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - Recent escalation in China-US trade tensions due to US pressure and China's countermeasures, leading to market fluctuations and a mixed performance in major indices [1][2] Macro Economic Analysis - Domestic macroeconomic conditions show a renewed escalation in trade tensions, with the US planning to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and threatening to cancel upcoming leader meetings [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce emphasizes a stance of lawful countermeasures while maintaining restraint to protect national interests [2] - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, with a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan aimed at boosting effective investment [2] - Manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement at 49.8%, while non-manufacturing PMI remains stable at 50% [3] Market Outlook - A-shares are viewed positively in the medium term, despite short-term market disturbances from trade tensions, suggesting investors should adopt a proactive strategy for quality assets [4][5] - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.03, showing slight gains despite broader declines in other indices [4] - The current low-risk interest rates and China's increasing global influence are seen as key drivers for the revaluation of Chinese assets [4] Debt Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a phase of recovery, with government bonds showing upward trends amid renewed trade tensions [6] - The overall balance in the funding environment remains stable, with a general decline in yields for 5-10 year bonds [6] - Concerns over US debt sustainability are leading to higher yields in US Treasuries, impacting market sentiment [6] Gold Market Trends - The medium-term upward trend for gold is expected to continue, driven by concerns over US fiscal policies and increasing demand from emerging market central banks [6] - Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold prices [6]