反内卷预期驱动煤炭供应收缩，国企红利ETF（159515）午后逆势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a positive outlook due to government policies aimed at regulating market prices and the upcoming heating season, which is expected to boost coal demand and prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices continued to decline, while the state-owned enterprise dividend sector rose, with the National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) increasing by 1.14% as of 13:30 [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Lu'an Environmental Energy rose by 4.26%, Shanxi Coal International by 3.94%, and COSCO Shipping Holdings by 2.91% [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation announced measures to combat price disorder and maintain market price order, which includes regulating pricing behavior and implementing penalties [1]. - The Ministry of Emergency Management plans to conduct annual safety production assessments across 31 provinces and regions starting in November, which is expected to further tighten coal supply expectations [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Zhejiang Securities, coal companies are expected to see improved performance in Q3 2025, with the heating season likely to drive up demand and support spot prices [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to continue promoting industry self-discipline, leading to a contraction in coal supply and supporting steady coal price increases [2]. - The National Enterprise Dividend Index (code 000824) combines state-owned enterprise themes with dividend strategies, enhancing the effectiveness of investment strategies [2].