Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-14 06:27Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has declined over 4%, currently trading at 156 HKD, with a trading volume of 20.43 billion HKD. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to 460 billion RMB, indicating a transformation in growth expectations driven by AI capital expenditure [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Alibaba's EBITA for the September quarter will decline by 80% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in the instant e-commerce business, which includes food delivery services [1] - The instant e-commerce business reported a loss of 11 billion RMB in the June quarter, which is expected to widen to 36 billion RMB in the September quarter [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - Despite recent profit-taking leading to a stock price pullback, Alibaba's breakthroughs in AI cloud computing capabilities and its potential for international expansion are expected to provide new upward momentum for the stock price [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that by the fiscal year 2028, international business will contribute one-fourth of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue [1] Group 3: Stock Rating - Goldman Sachs has raised its target price for Alibaba's U.S. and Hong Kong stocks by approximately 14% and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]