Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials to continue interest rate cuts within the year, with most believing that further easing measures are reasonable [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has reached 94.6%, and the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December has risen to 80.1%, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's decision to lower rates is seen as crucial for alleviating current labor market pressures and supporting ongoing economic recovery, with unemployment rates being a key factor in the December meeting [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown since October 1 has significantly disrupted the market, leading to increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and driving safe-haven investments into gold [4] - The shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including non-farm payroll figures, causing concern among Fed officials and reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal [4] - Historical data suggests that while government shutdowns typically have limited direct impact on gold, the current prolonged shutdown could have substantial economic consequences, coupled with a weakening dollar and a deepening trend of de-dollarization [4] Group 3 - The recent strength in gold prices is attributed to market concerns over the U.S. economy due to the government shutdown and strong expectations for continued Fed rate cuts [5] - Despite potential short-term declines in gold prices due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the long-term upward trend is expected to continue, supported by ongoing de-dollarization and economic stagnation in major economies [5] - Technically, gold is in a strong upward trend, having recently surpassed the $3900 and $4000 price levels, with potential buying opportunities if prices retreat to the $3860-$3900 range [5]
【百利好黄金专题】年内再降两次 黄金涨势如虹
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-14 06:33