大摩：美联储言论“一叶障目”，只见美国通胀，不见全球通缩

Group 1 - The core message of the report emphasizes a significant downward trend in global inflation, suggesting that investors may be overly concerned about U.S. inflation [1][2] - The report highlights that as of September, the global CPI annual inflation rate stands at 3.3%, down from 4.5% a year ago, indicating a strong downward momentum over the past 35 months [3] - The primary drivers of this global deflation are emerging markets and developing economies, where core inflation has reached multi-decade lows [5] Group 2 - The report argues that tariffs, while a visible risk, may not necessarily lead to higher inflation, as companies might absorb costs rather than pass them on to consumers [6] - It recommends that investors adopt a global perspective and hedge against U.S. inflation risks by buying U.S. Treasuries, particularly 5-year bonds, and shorting the dollar [6]