黄金狂飙，股市狂欢，债市冷笑：大家都在赌什么？

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the concept of "currency devaluation trading," where investors believe that governments will use inflation to alleviate heavy debt burdens, leading to increased demand for hard assets like gold and stocks [2][4][10] - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past year, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, while the dollar has depreciated by over 10% against other major currencies [3][4] - The bond market remains calm despite rising gold prices, with long-term inflation expectations stable around 2%, indicating that professional investors do not foresee severe inflation [8][9] Group 2 - The article highlights a split in market sentiment, where stock prices are driven by excitement over artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to create a low-inflation, high-growth economy, while gold prices are influenced by concerns over currency devaluation and central bank purchases [10][12] - Central banks are actively buying gold to diversify reserves and reduce risk, while lower interest rates make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [7][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term concerns about rising debt and short-term realities, as the future direction of markets largely depends on the Federal Reserve's next moves [12][14]