智库要览丨中国经济向新向好为世界提供机遇

Global Economic Environment Changes - The global economic environment is undergoing significant changes due to trade conflicts, policy uncertainties, and technological transformations, leading to a new economic landscape characterized by fragmentation and systemic shocks [2][8][21] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 to 2.4%, but has significantly lowered the 2026 forecast to 0.5% due to weak economic recovery and U.S. tariff policies [3][4][22] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicts that global maritime trade will grow by only 0.5% in 2025, marking the slowest growth in recent years, influenced by geopolitical tensions and rising transportation costs [5][24] Trade and Economic Outlook - The WTO's report indicates that in the first half of 2025, global goods trade volume is expected to grow by 4.9%, with trade value increasing by 6%, driven by demand for AI-related products [3][22] - The service trade is also expected to be impacted by tariffs, with global service export growth projected to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026 [4][23] - The World Economic Forum's Chief Economist Outlook suggests that approximately 72% of economists anticipate weak global economic growth in the coming year, with emerging markets expected to be the main growth engines [8][25][26] China's Role in Global Development - China's modernization efforts are contributing to global sustainable development, with significant investments in international cooperation and development resources [12][15][29] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has shown resilience in supply chains, with China's direct investment in Belt and Road countries reaching $50.99 billion, a 22.9% increase year-on-year [17][18][33] - The global development initiative has gained support from over 100 countries and international organizations, focusing on bridging development gaps and fostering international consensus [15][31][32]