现货黄金一度站上4160美元！专家：短期或有回调

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that spot gold has reached a historical high of $4160, with a year-to-date increase of over $1500, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns [1][6]. - As of October 14, spot gold was reported at $4162.12 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.28%, while COMEX gold futures were at $4172.1 per ounce, up 0.95% [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with several brands exceeding 1200 yuan per gram, reflecting the international market's fluctuations [1]. Group 2 - Gold concept stocks in the capital market showed significant movement, with many stocks opening higher, including Huayu Mining hitting the daily limit and others like Western Gold and Hunan Gold rising over 5% [6]. - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to heightened geopolitical risks and investor behavior shifting towards gold as a safe haven, amid concerns over economic contraction and rising risks associated with dollar assets [6]. - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 98.3% chance of a cut in October and a 91.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis points cut by December [6]. Group 3 - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with potential targets of $6000 per ounce next year, although short-term corrections may occur if no significant risk events arise [6][7]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting a rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months, Morgan Stanley forecasting $4500 by mid-2026, and Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 forecast from $4300 to $4900, indicating an 18% upside potential [7].