市场预期持续强化 美联储10月降息概率逼近99%

Core Viewpoint - The financial market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October has significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 89.8% on September 30 to 98.9% on October 14 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October has decreased from 10.2% to 1.1%, indicating a strong shift towards anticipated rate cuts [1] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by December has reached 94%, reflecting a clear trend towards monetary easing [1] - Economic data supporting this expectation includes a decline in private sector employment by 32,000 in September, significantly below the expected decrease of 51,000 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The capital markets have begun to respond to the strengthened expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with noticeable changes in the bond market yield curve [2] - Some investors are preemptively positioning themselves in interest-sensitive assets, while the dollar index has shown signs of volatility and weakening [2] - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with the expected rate cut, it may lead to lower loan rates for consumers, potentially impacting the housing market and consumer credit [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will directly influence the trajectory of the U.S. economy, with market expectations reflecting broader economic outlooks [2] - As the October meeting approaches, the market will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and its potential economic impacts [2]