敏感时刻，今晚鲍威尔又要登场了，这是他在美联储决议后首度发声

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics, marking his first public appearance since the September FOMC meeting, with investors keenly awaiting insights on interest rate policy direction [1] - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September meeting, with nearly unanimous support, except for new board member Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with one faction advocating for further reductions this year, while another believes the current stance is sufficiently accommodative, adding uncertainty to future policy paths [1][2] Economic Context - The Fed's dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability is currently challenged by competing concerns, as signs of a cooling labor market suggest potential vulnerabilities in employment, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target for the past five years [2] - Powell's focus on the labor market could indicate room for one or two more rate cuts before year-end, whereas an emphasis on persistent inflation would raise the threshold for further easing, suggesting a pause in rate cuts at the upcoming October meeting [3] Data Challenges - The speech occurs amid a government shutdown that has halted the release of key employment and inflation reports, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [1][3] - Investors currently perceive a 97% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, highlighting market expectations despite the lack of new economic data [3]