橡胶系期价集体大跌

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook, exacerbated by renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to significant declines in rubber futures prices [1][2]. Price Movements - As of October 13, the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, closing at 14,940 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.45% [1]. - The main 20 rubber futures contract NR2511 reported a price of 12,040 yuan/ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The main butadiene rubber futures contract BR2511 closed at 10,920 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.67% [1]. Market Drivers - The recent price drop is primarily driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamental market conditions [2]. - The impact of US-China trade friction has led to increased pressure on global financial markets and heightened volatility in investor sentiment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in futures prices for natural and synthetic rubber has outpaced that of spot prices [3]. - Synthetic rubber prices are more significantly affected by weakening crude oil prices, resulting in larger declines compared to natural rubber [3]. - Despite adverse weather conditions, including frequent typhoons and continuous rainfall in major production areas like Hainan, Yunnan, Thailand, and Vietnam, the market has not reacted positively [3]. - Instead, the market anticipates a concentrated release of supply in the fourth quarter, further intensifying downward price pressure [3].