香港第一金：黄金高位巨震，是行情见顶还是上车良机？

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $4179 due to profit-taking by investors and short-term overbought conditions in the market [2] - The rebound from $4090 was supported by low-level buying, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among investors who view corrections as buying opportunities [2] - Fundamental factors supporting gold's long-term bullish trend, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global trade tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases, remain unchanged [2][3] Recent Influential Events - Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is the most critical factor affecting gold prices, with high expectations for rate cuts in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Ongoing global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the Trump administration, are increasing economic uncertainty and driving safe-haven investments into gold [3] - Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and other volatile regions, can reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Central bank gold purchases are at multi-decade highs, providing solid long-term support for gold prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment [3] - The strength of the US dollar has a direct negative correlation with gold prices, influencing the market dynamics [3] Current Trading Strategy - The overall strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook while being cautious of short-term volatility [4] - Key support levels to watch are in the $4090 - $4100 range, which, if maintained, would indicate a healthy correction and present buying opportunities [4] - Short-term resistance is identified near the previous high of $4179, with a breakthrough potentially opening up price targets of $4200 - $4300 or higher [5] - Risk management is crucial, especially near historical highs where market volatility can increase significantly; recommendations include light positions and strict stop-loss orders [5]