王石再次预判楼市！前两次都是对的，软着陆才是最好的结局

Core Viewpoint - Wang Shi's recent predictions about the Chinese real estate market indicate a structural adjustment towards a healthier and more rational development trajectory, suggesting a "soft landing" is the best outcome for both the industry and society [4][8]. Market Conditions - The real estate market fundamentals are improving, with 42 out of 70 major cities reporting a month-on-month increase in new residential prices, and 38 cities seeing a rise in second-hand residential prices as of May 2025 [4][5]. - There is a significant structural differentiation in inventory, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities having a reasonable inventory turnover period of around 9 months, while some third and fourth-tier cities face over 20 months of inventory turnover [4][7]. Financing Environment - The financing environment for real estate companies is gradually improving, with bond financing reaching 286.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [5][7]. Consumer Behavior - There is a gradual recovery in residents' willingness to purchase homes, with the proportion of families planning to buy within two years rising from 12.3% at the end of 2024 to 16.7% [5][7]. - Consumers are becoming more rational, with 83.6% indicating their primary purpose for buying is self-occupation, while only 12.8% are purchasing for investment [7][8]. Industry Challenges - Urban differentiation is intensifying, with quality cities recovering faster while some cities experiencing net population outflows may face long-term adjustments [7][8]. - There is a clear divide among developers, with well-capitalized and operationally strong firms faring better, while over 500 small and medium-sized developers have exited the market in the past two years [7][8]. Future Outlook - The concept of "soft landing" is viewed differently among industry insiders, with some believing it has been achieved in core cities, while others express concerns for third and fourth-tier cities facing potential "hard landings" [8][10]. - The real estate market is expected to return to its residential nature, with speculation diminishing and price fluctuations aligning more closely with economic fundamentals and residents' income levels [11][12].