鲍威尔即将发表关键演讲！“失明”的美联储如何导航？

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is seen as a critical moment for adjusting expectations regarding future interest rate decisions, especially after the recent policy meeting revealed significant divisions among officials about the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Recent Actions - In the September meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, with only new board member Milan advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2] Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Officials are divided into two camps: one believes further rate cuts are necessary within the year, while the other thinks the current policy stance is sufficiently accommodative [2] Powell's Upcoming Speech - Powell's speech will provide insights on how the Federal Reserve plans to navigate policy without key economic data due to the government shutdown that began on October 1 [2] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve requires balancing "full employment" and "price stability," both of which are currently challenging due to signs of labor market cooling and persistent inflation above the 2% target [2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Market participants will closely analyze Powell's wording to gauge which aspect of the dual mandate he is more concerned about, which could influence expectations for future rate cuts [3] - Currently, there is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again in the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [3]