金价突破1200元创新高，疯狂涨势还要持续多久？

Group 1 - International gold prices have surged, breaking the $4100 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $4179.33 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [1][4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, surpassing 1200 RMB per gram, with significant daily increases observed across major brands [1][4] Group 2 - The four core driving factors behind the gold price surge include: 1. Global central banks' gold purchasing spree, with official reserves increasing by 52.9% to $4.64 trillion, and 95% of central banks planning to expand their gold reserves [5] 2. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would lower holding costs and enhance gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [5] 3. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with global physical gold ETFs attracting $26 billion in a single quarter [5] 4. Structural supply-demand imbalances, with rising production costs and limited mining capacity contributing to a "supply less than demand" scenario [5] Group 3 - Long-term forecasts suggest that gold prices could reach $10,000 per ounce by 2028-2029, with various institutions projecting significant increases in the coming years [8][9] - Short-term risks include potential price corrections of 10%-15% due to market over-optimism and technical adjustments following the recent highs [8][9]