国际原油价格下行，业内人士：短期弱势或难改

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have been experiencing a downward trend, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures hitting new lows since early May 2023, indicating a significant market shift [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - As of October 10, Brent crude futures and WTI crude futures reached lows of $62 per barrel and $58.22 per barrel, respectively, marking a cumulative decline of over 5% since the beginning of October [1] - By October 14, Brent and WTI prices were reported at $62.67 per barrel and $58.88 per barrel, respectively, continuing the downward trend [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Short-term fluctuations in the oil market are heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with recent risk aversion in financial markets leading to a decline in risk assets, including crude oil [1] - Despite a technical rebound in oil prices following a recovery in market sentiment, the rebound strength in crude oil is notably weaker compared to the stock market, primarily due to fundamental supply and demand pressures [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors have historically provided support for oil prices; however, the recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has diminished the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market [1] - As time progresses, weakening demand and increasing supply are expected to exert further pressure on oil prices [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The core factor suppressing oil prices in the near term will be the supply-demand fundamentals, especially if no new geopolitical disturbances occur [2] - Brent crude prices have fallen to a low range of $60 to $65 per barrel, and there is a possibility of prices testing the $60 per barrel support level again [2]