Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching a new all-time high, currently hovering around $4,100, influenced by a shift in U.S. President Trump's stance on tariffs with China, which boosted market optimism [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with ongoing partisan disputes preventing a budget agreement, which adds to economic uncertainty [3]. - Trump's recent threats to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods have escalated trade tensions, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - However, Trump's softened rhetoric indicating a desire to avoid economic harm to China has alleviated some market fears, supporting investor confidence while not halting gold's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, marked by drone attacks and retaliatory strikes, has contributed to gold's record high prices [4]. - Market expectations fully account for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 90% probability of another cut in December, which supports gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold has maintained an upward trend over the past three weeks, breaking through resistance levels of $4,055–$4,060 and surpassing $4,100, confirming a short-term bullish pattern [6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates an overbought condition, suggesting caution for short-term buying [6]. - A significant pullback could find support in the $4,060–$4,055 range; a breach below this level may trigger technical selling, potentially dragging prices down to the psychological level of $4,000 or testing the upward trendline support near $3,985 [6].
君諾金融：黄金从高点回落 是获利了结还是风险偏好回升所致？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-14 09:51