Group 1 - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on InnoLux (02577) with an Equal Weight rating and a target price of HKD 95, noting that the stock price has nearly doubled since the announcement of its partnership with NVIDIA in July 2025, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 8% during the same period [1] - The firm believes that the growth opportunities in NVIDIA's AI data centers are largely reflected in the current stock price, but there remains uncertainty regarding validation and order allocation [1] - InnoLux is expected to benefit from several long-term growth drivers, including AI data centers, humanoid robots, and electric vehicles, although industry competition remains fierce and current valuations reflect high market expectations [1] Group 2 - The gallium nitride (GaN) market is a niche segment within the semiconductor industry, with a projected total potential market size of USD 346 million in 2024, compared to the overall semiconductor industry size of USD 631 billion [2] - Driven by multiple factors, the GaN market is forecasted to achieve a 49% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029, with key drivers including 800V high-voltage DC power conversion in data centers, increasing servo motor usage in humanoid robots, growing applications in electric vehicles (such as onboard chargers, lidar, and DC-DC converters), and fast charging demands in consumer electronics [2] Group 3 - InnoLux is positioned to expand its market share in the rapidly growing GaN market due to its vertically integrated manufacturing model, which provides superior technology alignment, stable production capacity, and cost advantages in large-scale production [3] - The company is expected to outpace the overall market growth, supported by strategic collaborations with leading downstream clients, such as NVIDIA for AI data centers, Hesai Technology and Supcon for electric vehicles, and Zhiyuan Robotics for humanoid robots [3] - Additionally, strategic partnerships with STMicroelectronics are expected to aid in expanding overseas business [3] Group 4 - Despite long-term growth potential, competition and potential overcapacity may persist in the GaN market, with other manufacturers like Infineon also expanding production [4] - According to the supply-demand model constructed by the firm, global capacity is projected to increase from 100,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 345,000 wafers per month by 2029 (based on 6-inch wafers) [4] - While the overall capacity utilization rate for GaN may improve, it is expected to remain below 60% over the next five years, indicating that pricing and profitability in the GaN market may face pressure [4]
大摩：首予英诺赛科目标价95港元 受益于多项长期增长驱动因素