一小时内跳水近100美元！金价“过山车”是风险还是“黄金坑”？

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced significant volatility on October 14, 2023, with a peak of $4,179.75 per ounce before dropping to a low of $4,089.81, and later rebounding to around $4,140 [2][4]. Price Trends - On October 14, COMEX gold futures reached a high of $4,190.9 per ounce, marking a historical peak, before falling to $4,105 and recovering to approximately $4,150 by 5 PM [4][5]. - The overall trend in international gold prices has been upward, with a notable surge after surpassing the $4,000 per ounce mark [5]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver for the recent surge in gold prices is the strengthened market expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which could weaken the dollar and lower real interest rates, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [5]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and concerns regarding U.S. government debt have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold as a safe haven [5]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by purchasing significant amounts of gold, providing structural long-term support for gold prices [5]. Investment Dynamics - The buying power behind the recent gold price increases is attributed to three main sources: central bank purchases, accelerated inflows into gold ETFs, and capital reallocating from other assets, such as cryptocurrencies, into gold [5][6]. - In September, global physical gold ETF inflows reached 145.6 tons, the second-highest level since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, institutional investors maintain a generally optimistic view on gold's investment value. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 14% increase [7]. - Long-term factors such as high U.S. fiscal deficits and a weakening confidence in dollar assets support the view that gold will continue to be a crucial reserve asset, with short-term pullbacks seen as potential buying opportunities [7].