人民币逼退美元！中国停购必和必拓后，全球矿业规矩要变了？

Core Viewpoint - China's decision to stop purchasing BHP's iron ore priced in USD and switch to RMB has significant implications for the global mining industry, marking a shift in the balance of power in iron ore trade and signaling a move towards de-dollarization in commodity transactions [1][7][29]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, BHP's stock fell by 1.8%, and iron ore futures experienced fluctuations exceeding 3%, highlighting the immediate impact of China's procurement policy change on the market [4][27]. China's Position in Iron Ore Trade - China, as the world's largest iron ore importer, consumes approximately 75% of globally shipped iron ore, making its purchasing decisions critical for the profitability of mining companies [4][6]. - Historically, China has been viewed as a "big spender" in iron ore trade, often at the mercy of international miners due to its reliance on imported high-grade iron ore [9][11]. Historical Context - China's steel industry has faced three main challenges: high demand for steel due to urbanization, internal competition among numerous small steel producers, and the oligopolistic control of iron ore supply by a few major companies [9][14][16]. - The average profit margin for Chinese steel companies from 2005 to 2020 was below 5%, while BHP and its peers maintained profit margins around 60%, illustrating the unfavorable pricing dynamics for Chinese steelmakers [14]. Strategic Moves by China - China has adopted a three-step strategy to break the monopoly of international miners: consolidating its domestic steel industry, securing alternative iron ore sources, and strategically engaging with individual mining companies [16][19][21]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 allowed for unified negotiations with foreign suppliers, enhancing China's bargaining power [18]. Recent Developments - The commencement of production at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which has significant reserves, provides China with a stable iron ore supply and strengthens its negotiating position [21]. - China's recent negotiations with BHP culminated in a decision to accept RMB for iron ore transactions, marking a pivotal moment in the shift away from USD dominance in commodity pricing [27][29]. Future Implications - The increasing use of RMB in commodity settlements is expected to lead to a more diversified and competitive global iron ore market, moving away from the previous USD-centric model [31]. - China's approach in the iron ore market serves as a potential template for other developing countries seeking to enhance their negotiating power and secure fairer trade terms [29][31].