美元霸权崩塌进行时？暴跌10%创近50年新低，两股力量暗斗成关键

Core Insights - The dollar has experienced its worst performance in nearly half a century, with a 10% drop in the dollar index, while gold and U.S. stocks have surged, indicating a breakdown in traditional asset correlations [2][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline and Asset Decoupling - The dollar's 10% decline is significant, but the more surprising aspect is the disruption of the correlation between the dollar and other assets like the S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury yields [5]. - After May, the relationship between the dollar and U.S. stocks broke down, with stocks continuing to rise, particularly in AI-related sectors, while the dollar remained weak [5][7]. - Gold has seen increased demand, surpassing traditional buyers in Asia, as investors seek more reliable assets amid rising concerns over U.S. government credit risk [5][7]. Group 2: Underlying Factors of Dollar Weakness - The decoupling of asset performance reflects a divergence between corporate credit and government credit, with U.S. tech companies maintaining competitiveness while concerns about U.S. government debt stability grow [7]. - The dollar's decline is driven by two main forces: concerns over U.S. government credit and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][11]. - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve has raised market fears about the independence of monetary policy, further undermining the dollar's credibility [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Predictions indicate that the dollar may depreciate an additional 10% by the end of next year, potentially falling to around 91 [15]. - A weaker dollar could benefit emerging markets by attracting capital flows, but historical precedents warn of potential financial instability if not managed properly [16][18]. - For China, the dollar's weakness provides an opportunity to focus on domestic economic recovery without the pressure of currency depreciation [18][20].