白银破53美元创纪录！回顾1980年和2011年两次冲顶，这次能否打破“50美元魔咒”？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to a historical high of $53 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase of approximately 80% since early 2025, outpacing gold's 57% rise during the same period. The London market is experiencing unprecedented tightness in supply, leading to delays in delivery and increased transportation costs for silver [1][3][11]. Historical Context - The current surge in silver prices is reminiscent of past market events, notably in 1980 and 2011, where speculative trading led to significant price spikes followed by sharp declines. In 1980, silver prices soared to $50.35 due to market manipulation by the Hunt brothers, while in 2011, prices approached $50 amid quantitative easing and inflation concerns [3][5][6][7]. - The 1980 price spike was driven by a concentrated effort to monopolize the silver market, resulting in a dramatic increase in prices followed by a market crash known as "Silver Thursday" [5][6]. - In 2011, the price increase was fueled by macroeconomic factors, including low interest rates and geopolitical tensions, leading to a speculative bubble that eventually burst [6][7][8]. Current Market Dynamics - The recent price increase is attributed to a combination of rising debt and fiscal risks, ongoing regional conflicts, and uncertainty in monetary policy, which have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [11]. - Significant inflows into silver through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have led to a shortage of physical silver in the market, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where tight supply drives prices higher, attracting more investment into ETFs [11][12]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly in solar panels, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics, is also a contributing factor, with industrial usage accounting for 59% of silver consumption [12]. Price Comparisons and Future Projections - Adjusted for inflation, the historical peaks of silver prices in 1980 and 2011 would correspond to approximately $200 and $70 per ounce today, respectively. This indicates that even if silver surpasses $50, it would still be significantly lower than historical extremes when adjusted for purchasing power [15]. - Forecasts suggest that silver prices could reach $65 per ounce by 2026, with some analysts predicting a 20% increase over the next year [15]. - However, there are concerns about the current market being overbought, with technical indicators suggesting a potential for price corrections in the near term [15].