美政府关门“污染”！美国9月CPI报告恐失真？

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is threatening the quality of key inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release next month [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been instructed to recall some employees to prepare the September CPI report, but has been unable to collect new price information since the shutdown began on October 1 [1][2] - The labor-intensive nature of CPI data collection, which involves gathering information on approximately 80,000 items nationwide, is particularly impacted by the funding interruption [1] Data Collection Challenges - The BLS may resort to more estimations due to the inability to collect certain prices, as noted by former BLS officials [2] - If the shutdown continues, the BLS might adjust the weights of various categories based on longer-term price changes [2] - The collection rate of prices has declined, which poses further risks to data quality [3] Impact on Reports - Any issues with the October CPI report could affect the release of other reports, including the PCE price index, which relies on CPI data [3] - The September CPI report, initially scheduled for release, has been delayed to October 24 due to the need to recall staff for Social Security adjustments [2][3] Caution on Data Interpretation - Economists advise against overinterpreting any single data point, especially for the October report [4] - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to any anomalies in the October data [5]