黄益平、杜浩锋、徐诗语、伍晓鹰、余昌华：结构性视角下的“稳增长”政策框架

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a combination of macroeconomic and structural policies to stabilize China's economy and promote high-quality development in the face of insufficient effective demand and structural changes in key industries [3][6][12]. Economic Growth and Structural Characteristics - China's economic cycles are characterized by structural features, where macroeconomic fluctuations are primarily driven by a few key industries, reflecting the evolution of the industrial structure [4]. - The real estate sector has historically played a significant role in driving economic growth, but its contribution may have peaked, necessitating a focus on emerging industries for future growth [5][6]. Policy Recommendations - A dual approach is recommended: macro policies should focus on overall economic stability, while industry-specific policies should address structural challenges [6][10]. - Structural monetary policy should be employed to alleviate credit constraints in key sectors like real estate, while also guiding credit towards emerging sectors such as advanced manufacturing and digital economy [8][9]. - Fiscal policy should aim to stabilize traditional industries while supporting the development of new industries, with a focus on optimizing existing assets and enhancing public services [9][10]. Risk Management and Monitoring - It is crucial to identify key traditional industries and establish a monitoring mechanism to manage risks effectively, ensuring that macro policies are complemented by targeted industry policies [7][10]. - Macro-prudential policies should be adapted to address unique risks in both traditional and emerging industries, ensuring financial stability during economic fluctuations [10]. Expectations Management - Different industries respond differently to macro policies, necessitating tailored communication strategies to manage expectations effectively [11]. - For industries facing risks, timely communication about risk mitigation efforts is essential to prevent negative sentiment, while clear long-term goals should be articulated for emerging sectors to foster confidence [11]. Long-term Perspective - The article concludes that while the current policy framework is necessary for short-term stability, long-term economic vitality will depend on deeper reforms to address structural and systemic barriers [12].