150倍PE下的隐忧：三季度业绩环比转跌，英维克遭陆股通减持

Core Viewpoint - In the third quarter of 2025, Invec (002837.SZ) reported strong revenue growth driven by increased demand for liquid cooling solutions, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure investments, despite a sequential decline in quarterly performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Invec achieved revenue of 14.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.34%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.44% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 1.83 billion yuan, with growth rates below 10% for both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [2] - The company’s gross margin improved by 3.4 percentage points to 29.4%, attributed to changes in product and regional mix [2] Market Dynamics - The liquid cooling server index has risen over 47% this year, reaching historical highs, with Invec's stock price surging 169% in the third quarter, peaking at 89.99 yuan [1] - Despite the stock price increase, the net sell-off by the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in the third quarter amounted to 45.2 million shares, reducing the holding ratio from 8.49% to 3.79% [1] Future Outlook - Analysts expect Invec's full-year revenue to exceed 60 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%, with net profit projections ranging from 6 billion to 9 billion yuan [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid expansion of the liquid cooling market driven by high demand in data centers and computing power investments [3][4] Industry Trends - The complexity and importance of liquid cooling technology are expected to increase, evolving from a simple alternative to air cooling into a comprehensive solution involving multiple stakeholders [4] - The growth in contract liabilities and inventory indicates future revenue potential, although inventory levels did not increase as anticipated, suggesting a delay in order conversion [3] Adjustments in Forecasts - Open Source Securities has revised its profit forecast for Invec, lowering the expected net profit for 2025 from 6.51 billion yuan to 6.03 billion yuan, while increasing the 2026 forecast to 11.1 billion yuan [5]