KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-10-14 12:39Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has experienced a rebound after a period of underperformance during the "Mid-Autumn and National Day" holiday season, with all constituent stocks rising for the first time since September 12 [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 14, the white liquor index closed at 3046.63 points, up 2.72%, with all constituent stocks recording gains [1]. - Notable performers included Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye, which rose by 6.68% and 6.27% respectively, while Lu Zhou Lao Jiao increased by over 4% [1]. Sales Trends - Despite a significant increase in sales volume in August and September, the overall performance during the holiday season was disappointing, with some distributors reporting a year-on-year sales decline of 20% to 30% [3]. - High-end liquor products faced varying degrees of unsold inventory, while mid-range and mass-market products saw increased sales [3]. New Sales Channels - New retail channels have shown strong performance, with one platform reporting an 8-fold increase in white liquor sales during the holiday period, and top brands like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving daily sales exceeding 10 million yuan [3][4]. Investor Sentiment - Market expectations regarding the poor performance of white liquor during the holiday season had already been priced in, leading to profit-taking by investors since early September [4]. - On October 14, the white liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.07 billion yuan, primarily driven by large orders [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities suggest that the white liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with negative factors like high social inventory and fluctuating consumption environment being released [5]. - CITIC Securities believes the industry is in a bottoming phase, with a potential turning point in sales expected by Q1 2024 [5]. - The upcoming "Double 11" sales event and year-end sales peak are anticipated to impact the industry's performance, with a focus on inventory digestion and price adjustments as key factors for recovery [5].