IMF：全球经济动荡不安，关税影响尚未完全显现

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting a gradual adaptation to trade tensions [1] - The global economic growth rate is significantly below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%, with a projected annualized growth rate of 3.0% from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The IMF emphasizes that the current economic environment is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, debt pressures, and climate change, leading to increased uncertainty [2] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The U.S. has implemented new tariffs on various imported goods, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 100% tariff on patented drugs, which has drawn strong opposition from multiple countries [2][3] - The IMF warns that the full impact of tariff policies has yet to manifest, with rising corporate profits potentially leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The world trade volume is expected to see a moderate decline over the next five years, with a projected average growth rate of 2.9% for 2025-2026, lower than previous forecasts [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Predictions - The U.S. economic growth is forecasted at 2.0% and 2.1% for the next two years, reflecting improvements due to lower effective tariff rates and fiscal stimulus from legislation [5] - The Eurozone is expected to see moderate growth, with predictions of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, influenced by high uncertainty and increased tariffs [5] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to slow from 4.3% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with significant downgrades for low-income countries compared to middle-income economies [6] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, with significant variations across countries [8] - The U.S. inflation is projected to rise again in late 2025 due to the impact of tariffs being passed on to consumers, with a return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target expected by 2027 [8] - The IMF anticipates that the U.S. federal funds rate will decline to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025, while the Eurozone's policy rate is expected to remain at 2% [8] Group 5: Currency and Trade Balance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated significantly in 2025, with a decline of approximately 10.8% in the first half of the year, which may enhance export competitiveness and reduce import-driven inflation [10] - The IMF notes that while the weaker dollar amplifies tariff impacts, it also supports global trade and provides policymakers in emerging markets with more room to support their economies [10]