IEA月报：明年或将出现创纪录石油过剩

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates an unprecedented oversupply in the global oil market, projecting a record surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2024, which is significantly higher than previous estimates [1][3] - The oversupply is attributed to increased production from OPEC+ and its competitors, with a notable rise in supply from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina [3] Group 1 - IEA's latest monthly report highlights that global oil supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year, marking an unprecedented oversupply situation [1] - The forecast for supply surplus in 2026 has been raised by approximately 18% compared to last month, reflecting ongoing production increases from OPEC+ and its competitors [1] - Brent crude oil futures are nearing $62 per barrel, having declined by 15% this year, indicating continued pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2 - Despite predictions from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan that the market will decline further, oil prices have not collapsed as previously anticipated when Saudi Arabia and its partners increased oil supply [3] - The IEA notes that much of the oversupply is in the form of natural gas liquids (NGLs) used as petrochemical feedstock rather than crude oil [3] - Non-OPEC+ supply is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day next year, which is about 200,000 barrels per day higher than IEA's previous estimate [3]