金银突发跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, are attributed to a combination of geopolitical events and monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to significant price volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 8, spot gold reached a historic high of $4,059 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices rose to ¥1,176 per gram, before experiencing a sharp decline to around $4,001 the following day [1]. - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices was the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel on October 9, which alleviated market fears and led to a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% was interpreted as a temporary adjustment rather than the start of a rate-cutting cycle, contributing to rising expectations of actual interest rates [1][4]. Group 2: Institutional Positioning - As of September 23, the CFTC's report indicated a modest increase in non-commercial net long positions in gold, rising by only 339 contracts to 266,749, suggesting that institutions were cautious and not aggressively increasing their positions [5]. - The increase in silver net longs was similarly limited, with only 738 contracts added, indicating a lack of confidence in a sustained upward trend in precious metals [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The next three months are expected to see gold and silver enter a "wide fluctuation period," with gold likely trading between $3,850 and $4,100 in October, and potentially reaching $4,200 in November if rate cut expectations adjust [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,968, while silver is projected to fluctuate between ¥10,800 and ¥12,000 per kilogram, with industrial demand providing additional support for silver prices [7]. - The market's response to upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data will be crucial in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance [5].