金银暴涨突遭闪崩，大扫荡开始了？还敢上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, market dynamics, and supply shortages, leading to a "perfect storm" in the precious metals market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Surge Factors - Gold prices have increased by over $700 per ounce, approximately 20%, while silver prices have risen by over $13 per ounce, around 30% since September 1 [1]. - The escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, including threats of increased tariffs and export controls, has heightened market tensions, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has contributed to rising gold prices by creating political uncertainty and delaying key economic data, which raises concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy and the dollar [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing significant upward pressure due to similar factors as gold, compounded by a historic shortage in the physical silver market [4][5]. - Since mid-2021, the inventory in the London silver market has decreased by one-third, with current free-flowing amounts down 75% from mid-2019 levels, leading to a severe physical squeeze [5]. - The borrowing rate for silver in London surged from 5% to 42.72% in a month, indicating a critical shortage of physical silver [5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Standard Chartered Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $3,875 to $4,488 per ounce, while Bank of America and Societe Generale predict gold could reach $5,000 per ounce, suggesting at least a 20% upside potential [7]. - The silver market is expected to reach a record price of $65 per ounce by 2026 due to supply shortages [7]. - The dynamics of the silver market are compared to a "guerrilla warfare" scenario, where the flow of silver from New York to London is crucial for addressing the current shortages [7][12]. Group 4: Market Volatility - Recent trading has shown extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations observed in both gold and silver markets, indicating heightened market activity and uncertainty [11]. - The London silver price experienced a sharp drop from a historical high of $53.45 per ounce to $50.65 per ounce, reflecting the intense market dynamics at play [11][10]. - The ongoing battle for market positions suggests that volatility may continue to increase, impacting both gold and silver prices [11].