10年 2.4万家！私募“注销潮”映射行业变局

Core Insights - The private equity industry in China is undergoing a significant cleansing process, with over 24,000 private fund managers having been deregistered in the past decade, marking a shift from a one-time policy-driven cleanup to a normalized deep reshuffling influenced by both regulation and market dynamics [1][3][12] Industry Overview - As of August 2025, there are 19,614 active private fund managers in China, including 7,684 private securities fund managers and 11,740 private equity and venture capital fund managers [2] - The number of private fund managers has been steadily declining over the past decade, with 1,014 deregistrations reported in 2023, a decrease of 22% compared to the previous year [3][6] Historical Context - The first wave of deregistration began in 2016, with a dramatic increase from 51 deregistrations in 2015 to 11,249 in 2016, primarily due to the cleanup of "shell private equity" firms [5][6] - The second wave of deregistration started in 2022, with 2,210 firms deregistered that year, and a peak of 2,537 in 2023, reflecting ongoing market challenges [6][7] Regulatory Changes - Recent regulatory changes have significantly raised the entry barriers for private fund managers, with the minimum investment threshold for private equity products now set at 10 million yuan, a tenfold increase from the previous 1 million yuan [8][9] - The implementation of the "most stringent new regulations in private equity history" on May 1, 2023, has further tightened requirements regarding capital, personnel, and operational standards [7][9] Market Dynamics - The current deregistration wave is driven by a combination of market stagnation, self-purification within the industry, and stringent regulatory pressures [9][10] - Smaller private equity firms, particularly those reliant on IPO exits, are facing heightened challenges, leading to a higher deregistration rate compared to larger firms [9][10] Future Outlook - The trend of deregistration is expected to continue, but at a slower pace, with estimates suggesting that the number of deregistrations may not reach the levels seen in previous years [12] - The private equity industry is entering a phase characterized by "the strong getting stronger," with larger firms likely to dominate the market while smaller firms struggle to survive [13][14] Survival Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on three main areas for survival: achieving sustainable performance, securing funding, and maintaining compliance with regulatory standards [14][15] - Different firms are adopting varied strategies, with some opting for a "boutique" approach while others are building comprehensive platforms to compete effectively in the market [14][15]