专访赖晓明：推进碳市场扩容 研究配额有偿分配｜四中全会预热

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation since its inception four years ago [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has achieved a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [3]. - The number of trading accounts opened by newly included key emission units reached 1,277 by the end of August 2025, expanding the market's participant base [2]. Industry Inclusion and Impact - The carbon market has expanded to include four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, enhancing market diversity and trading opportunities [2][3]. - The structural changes in market participants have led to increased trading opportunities due to varying judgments on market transactions among different enterprises [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and numerous investment and financial institutions, contributing to its trading volume and activity [5]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination and the establishment of a total control mechanism for carbon emissions [11]. - Shanghai plans to further diversify its market participants and explore innovative environmental rights, including water rights and pollution rights trading, to enhance market functionality [7][10].