Tesla's surprising delivery data hide a serious problem

Core Insights - Tesla's stock has surged 72% over the past six months, driven by strong third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 electric vehicles, exceeding analyst expectations of fewer than 440,000 [1][3]. Delivery Performance - Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025, up from 462,890 in the same period last year, indicating a robust year-over-year growth [1][4]. - The production for the quarter was 447,000 vehicles, which is down year-over-year, suggesting a fundamental shrinkage in production capacity [6]. Market Dynamics - The expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of September incentivized car buyers to purchase electric vehicles, benefiting Tesla significantly [3]. - Despite the strong delivery numbers, there are concerns regarding the sales performance of Tesla's other models, which have not seen an increase, indicating limited growth outside of the core Model Y and Model X [6]. Valuation Concerns - Analysts have mixed views on Tesla's valuation, with some, like Cathie Wood from Ark Invest, believing it is undervalued with a five-year price target of $2,600, largely based on potential from Robotaxi and autonomous driving software [7]. - Other analysts, such as Jed Dorsheimer from William Blair, maintain a more cautious stance, suggesting that Robotaxi is crucial for Tesla's future, contributing significantly to their price target [8].