家民：古籍中的“通货紧缩”

Group 1 - The essence of deflation is a decrease in money supply or a slowdown in circulation speed, leading to insufficient total demand and a general, persistent decline in prices [2] - Historical descriptions of deflation in ancient China highlight the negative impact on farmers, with phrases like "物贱伤农" indicating that low agricultural prices harm farmers' income [3] - The phenomenon of "钱少物贱" illustrates the insufficient circulation of currency, resulting in difficulties in selling goods and continuous price drops, ultimately leading to a contraction in trade [3][4] Group 2 - During the Qin and Han dynasties, the economic model was relatively simple, but deflation was closely linked to the rise and fall of the dynasty, with historical records indicating a mismatch between agricultural production and currency circulation [6] - The Tang and Song dynasties faced severe challenges in their currency systems, with the demand for money increasing due to economic prosperity, yet the supply of copper coins was insufficient, leading to a "money shortage" [8] - The Ming and Qing dynasties transitioned to a silver-based currency system, which introduced new deflation risks, particularly when international silver supply fluctuated, impacting the domestic economy [9][10] Group 3 - Historical cases of deflation in ancient China reveal the vulnerability and instability of the currency supply, which can lead to economic stagnation or collapse when supply issues arise [12] - The fluctuation of agricultural prices is not only an economic issue but also a political one, as low prices can lead to social unrest and potentially the downfall of dynasties [12] - Government responses to deflation, such as issuing paper money or adjusting tax structures, often lacked effective theoretical guidance and credit support, resulting in limited success [12][13]