美元布局紧急生变！中国拒绝援助买家离场，45万亿资产陷困局

Economic Performance - China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, driven by domestic demand, manufacturing, and service sector recovery [2] - The World Bank has raised China's annual growth forecast to 4.8%, close to the official target of around 5% [2] - In contrast, the US experienced a 3.8% annualized growth in Q2, but the full-year forecast is only 1.8% to 1.9% [2][18] Debt Market Dynamics - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds fell to $730.7 billion in July 2025, a decrease of $25.7 billion from the previous month, marking the lowest level since December 2008 [4] - This reduction reflects China's strategy of diversifying foreign exchange reserves, moving away from large-scale purchases of US debt [4][6] - The shift in China's investment strategy includes a focus on Asian assets and gold to enhance risk resilience [4][6] Real Estate Market Trends - Chinese investors are gradually exiting the US real estate market, shifting their focus to Asia or other stable regions [10] - The total value of US homes reached $55.1 trillion, but several states have seen declines, with Florida and California losing $109 billion and $106 billion, respectively [10] - The cumulative effect of these declines is significant, as the market adjusts to avoid potential risks [10][16] Investment Strategy Shifts - The US faces a potential crisis with $45 trillion in household real estate wealth, which is vulnerable to fluctuations in the debt market [12] - Chinese buyers have strategically exited the US market to avoid the impact of these fluctuations, demonstrating improved predictive capabilities [12][16] - The Federal Reserve's shift from aggressive rate hikes to gradual cuts has had limited success in reversing the increasing inventory trend in the US real estate market [12][20] Currency and Global Influence - China's economic strategy emphasizes domestic demand expansion and technological investment, maintaining a stable growth rate above 5% [14] - The refusal to provide external financial assistance reflects China's confidence in its sovereign financial strategy [14][20] - The global shift towards emerging markets presents opportunities for China to enhance its influence and reduce reliance on the US dollar [18][20]