短期供应端仍有炒作基础！铜多单还能持有吗？

Macroeconomic and Industry News - In September, domestic copper rod production reached 99,960 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.09% [1] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate for September was 50.9%, up 1.04% from the previous month [1] - Among the surveyed companies, those with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a utilization rate of 61.94%, increasing by 2.19% [1] - Companies with an annual capacity below 50,000 tons had a utilization rate of 37.57%, down 0.34% [1] - The copper rod market showed slight improvement during the traditional peak season in September, but no significant recovery was observed [1] Market Performance - The main copper futures contract closed at 86,520 CNY/ton, with a rise of 2.02% [1] - Trading volume was 85,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend with a typical upward arrangement of moving averages [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The processing fees for imported copper ore have stabilized after a sharp decline, leading to expanded losses for smelters [2] - Initial consumption shows that only copper rod production remains at historically high levels, while copper pipes, cables, and copper plates are declining [3] - The market is shifting towards macro trading, influenced by rising inflation expectations and a cooling job market, with potential benefits for the non-ferrous sector due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Inventory and Structural Analysis - Total inventory across major exchanges has increased, with Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME inventories showing a rapid accumulation followed by slight reductions [3] - COMEX inventory has been continuously increasing, indicating weak demand despite the traditional consumption peak [3] Conclusion - The short-term supply side still has speculative support due to tight mining conditions and negative processing fees, but the consumption side does not support sustained price increases [3] - The overall market may experience pulse-like price increases, but these may not be long-lasting [3] Strategy Recommendations - Existing long positions should be maintained, while new positions are not recommended at this time [4]