分析人士：不利因素逐步减少

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the government bond futures market is influenced by various factors, including rising market risk aversion due to trade tensions, changes in monetary policy expectations, and uncertainties in the economic fundamentals of China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Influences - The increase in market risk aversion is primarily driven by escalating trade frictions, which have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has engaged in significant monetary operations, including a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, which has raised expectations for continued monetary easing [1]. - The manufacturing PMI for September remains in contraction territory, indicating ongoing uncertainties in China's economic recovery, although there is optimism regarding technology-led growth [1]. Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Factors - The release of the draft regulation on the management of public fund sales fees has introduced new uncertainties, leading some institutions to preemptively sell off assets, which has pressured the market [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market in September has also exerted some downward pressure on the bond market [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market's future performance will depend on the development of trade tensions; a short-lived escalation may not significantly alter monetary policy expectations [2]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is crucial, as any signals regarding economic stability could impact market confidence [2][3]. - Continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics in the bond market and changes in liquidity conditions is essential [3].