LVMH三季度营收意外增长1%，丝芙兰表现抢眼，ADR大涨8%

Core Insights - LVMH reported a surprising 1% organic revenue growth in Q3, reaching €18.28 billion, ending two consecutive quarters of decline and exceeding analyst expectations of zero growth [1][4] - Following the positive earnings report, LVMH's stock surged over 8%, positively impacting other luxury brands like Kering and Richemont [1] Financial Performance - Q3 organic revenue growth of 1% to €18.28 billion, ending two quarters of decline, with a 9-month revenue of €58.1 billion, down 4% year-on-year [4] - Fashion and leather goods segment saw a 2% decline in Q3, better than the expected 4% drop, while perfumes and cosmetics grew by 2% and specialty retail (including Sephora) grew by 7% [4] - The wine and spirits segment unexpectedly grew by 1%, reversing a forecasted 3% decline, driven by champagne restocking in the U.S. [5] Regional Performance - Asia (excluding Japan) grew by 2% in Q3, contrasting with a 9% decline in the first half of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the Chinese market [5] - The U.S. market showed a solid 3% growth, while Europe declined by 2% due to currency fluctuations and reduced tourist spending [7] - Japan experienced a significant 13% decline, attributed to a high comparative base from the previous year when a weak yen attracted tourists [7] Structural Challenges - The fashion and leather goods segment, which contributes over two-thirds of LVMH's profits, reported a revenue drop of 8% in the first nine months of the year [3] - LVMH is undergoing a major creative overhaul with new creative directors appointed across several brands, but the long-term commercial success of these changes remains uncertain [3][6] - Despite the Q3 growth, LVMH's CFO cautioned that the fourth quarter will present more challenging comparisons, indicating potential volatility in future performance [5][6]