房价大局已定，你还着急买房吗？从抢着买到挑着买透露什么信号？

Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning from a "buying frenzy" to a "selective buying" phase, reflecting a significant change in consumer sentiment and market dynamics [7][8] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, new residential prices in 300 cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, while second-hand residential prices fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, indicating a gentle downward trend in overall housing prices [7] - The average transaction cycle for residential properties in key cities extended to 93 days in the first half of 2025, compared to 42 days in 2020 and 76 days in 2022, allowing buyers more time for consideration [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The housing supply has become more abundant, with a total inventory of approximately 680 million square meters as of June 2025, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 17 months, exceeding the reasonable level of 12 months [9] - The average per capita housing area reached 41.3 square meters by the end of 2024, a 37.7% increase from 30 square meters in 2010, indicating that housing supply is now sufficient to meet basic residential needs [9] Changing Buyer Attitudes - The concept of "housing for living, not for speculation" has gained traction, with 71.3% of respondents in a 2025 survey believing that homes are primarily for living, up from 58.6% in 2020 [10] - The percentage of people expecting continuous price increases dropped from 47.5% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2025, reflecting a more cautious outlook among buyers [10] Population Trends - China's population growth has slowed, with a natural growth rate of -1.73‰ in 2024, leading to a deceleration in housing demand [11] - There is a noticeable shift in population movement, with some first-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in net inflow, while second and third-tier cities are attracting more residents [11][12] Financial Environment - Real estate financing policies are returning to normal, with a 3.2% growth in real estate loan balances in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the average growth of 8.5% for all loans [13] - Despite a decrease in mortgage rates, the impact on stimulating demand has been limited due to declining expectations for future returns [13] Strategic Recommendations for Buyers - First-time buyers should consider entering the market now, as stable prices and ample choices reduce financial pressure [14] - Existing homeowners looking to upgrade can take their time to compare options and consider strategies like "selling before buying" to mitigate financial risks [14] - Investors should be cautious and evaluate potential returns carefully, as relying solely on price appreciation is becoming more challenging [14] Conclusion - The shift from a "buying frenzy" to a "selective buying" market reflects a maturation of the real estate sector, providing more options and bargaining power for buyers [19] - The focus should be on finding suitable homes for living rather than speculative investments, emphasizing the importance of long-term residential needs over short-term price fluctuations [19]